Cook’s political report boosts House GOP gains in latest projection

Jhe Bake the political report increased its projection of the number of seats the Republican Party will win in the House in the midterm elections.

The GOP is expected to win 12 to 25 seats in the election in two weeks, the Bake political reports David Wasserman said in his analysis, compared to the previous outlook, Republicans would walk away with a pick-up of 10-20 seats. The GOP needs a net gain of at least five seats to take control of the lower house. The analysis also includes 10 race ranking changes.


“This week, the six races moving in the GOP leadership are located in states that Joe Biden carried in 2020, while the four races moving in the Democrats direction are located in states that Donald Trump carried both in 2016 and 2020,” Wasserman, editor of House of the nonpartisan outlet, wrote.

Here are the race changes:

Alaska: Embark on the Lean Democrat
Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola, who won the special election to replace the late Rep. Don Young (R), is now more likely to fend off Republican opponents in the state’s pick election.

California 49th District: Lean Democrat to Toss-Up
It’s anyone’s game as Rep. Mike Levin (D) tries to fend off Republican challenger Brian Maryott.

Connecticut 5th District: Lean Democrat to Toss-Up
Republican George Logan’s odds are improving against Rep. Jahana Hayes (D).

Iowa 2nd District: Likely Republican to Skinny Republican
Rep. Ashley Hinsen (R)’s re-election chances dip slightly as she takes on State Senator Liz Mathis (D).

Kansas 3rd District: Get Started with Lean Democrat
Rep. Sharice Davids (R) successfully navigates her district’s move from backing Biden by 11 points to just 4 points clear after the redistricting as she takes on GOP Chairwoman Amanda Adkins.

New York 17th District: Lean Democrat to Toss-Up
Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D), who chairs the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, sees whether his bet to move to a safer neighborhood will pay off as he faces a close race with GOP Congressman Mike Lawler.

North Carolina 1st District: Skinny Democrat to Likely Democrat
State Sen. Don Davis (D)’s odds have improved to win over Republican Sandy Smith in the district Biden won by 7 percentage points

Virginia 7th District: Lean Democrat to Toss-Up
Prince William County Supervisor Yesli Vega (R) gives outgoing Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) a run for her money as the race moves into tough territory.


Virginia 10th District: Solid Democrat to Likely Democrat
Navy veteran Hung Cao (R) takes the lead from Rep. Jennifer Wexton (D).

Wisconsin 3rd District: Skinny Republican to Likely Republican
The future of this open seat looks brighter as retired Navy SEAL Derrick Van Orden makes inroads despite a challenge from Democratic Sen. Brad Pfaff.